Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Acquiring Junk Target...Yes, We Have a Lock

Getting kicked yet again in the poker junk was not how I wanted to spend yesterday. But, as a wise man once said, "You can't always get what you want."

I'm probably going to take a few days off and mull things over in my monkey brain. Methinks I grossly underestimated the variance of 10/20 short, especially after digging up a thread on 2+2 where assorted conservative estimates for a healthy bankroll playing 10/20 short clocked in at about 1000 BBs. Which is, umm, a big number, and not one I'd mentally digested or prepared myself for, as far as a potential, completely natural downswing that I might face.

I'm more than a little conflicted, as yesterday actually put me into the red for actual poker play during the month. Counting in prop payments, I'm still pretty solidly in the black, so the glass is still half full. So as bad as things have been, I'm still making pretty good money.

I look at the players I'm sitting with and the beats that have knocked my back over the last week or so, and I can't help but be encouraged. There are definitely a few regulars in the games that are much better than I am playing short, and I tip my hat to them. But there are also regulars who fundamentally misunderstand how to play poker (including the guy from a previous post that didn't understand that his small pocket pair of 22 was counterfeited by the two larger pair on the board, thus giving him a 2 high hand), yet are willing to shove literally thousands of dollars into the game.

I'm not dead money in these games. This I know. I still have much to learn about playing short, but I have enough skill to be beating this games. But I'm also not sure I'm ready to deal with the variance involved, at this stage of things. Especially when pondering about venturing out into the world of full-time poker player.

As far as how to proceed, well, I'm not sure. The stubborn side of me wants to keep tilting at the 10/20 short windmill, as things have to turn at some point. I realize that's dangerous thinking but I'll spare you the litany of absolutely ridiculous beats I've taken of late, that have contributed to dig the current hole I'm sitting in. And yeah, I know, it's all variance, and variance is variance is variance, but again, really, we're in probably 4 or 5 sigma territory, as far as the odds of this perfect little storm brewing.

But I also need to get my feet back beneath me, so I may return to the comfort zone of 15/30 full ring games for awhile, even though that means reduced prop payments, as the prop site almost never has full 15/30 games running. Or possibly split time between the two limits, so that I don't psychologically have so much riding on the fickle nature of 10/20 short.

Stupid poker. Why can't you just let me win every single hand, while I light cigars with Benjamins, instructing my monkey butler to click my diamond-encrusted mouse to make masterful plays as I recline on a king-sized bed with scantily-clad, buxom Swedish supermodels?

6 comments:

WillWonka said...

1000 BBs?.?. Wow... I thought I was being way over the top conservative when I changed my requirements to 800BB after my huge junk killing time from Aug-Dec.

I'm not sure that I agree with 1000. Sure, it is one thing to be conservative; but wow that is a lot of cushion.

But what do I know... I am so gunshy to move up these days. I'm now playing with a 1700BB cushion... while occassionally moving to the appropriate levels per bankroll when the mood moves me.

ScurvyDog said...

Will,

Yeah, and that 1000 BB number came from a few posters that I'm inclined to respect, who seem to play pretty reasonably and aren't maniacs nor overly conservative.

A few weeks ago I'd have agreed thar such a number was overly conservative, but now I'm not so sure. I'm not anywhere near a 1000 BB downswing, by any stretch of the imagination, but if you're playing 3 or 4 shorthanded 10/20 tables, yeah, the losses can pile up quickly.

fairnbalncd said...

Scantily-clad buxom swedish broads aside, I'm thoroughly convinced the 1000BB 'roll is a good thing regardless of how one plays.

Michael said...

Nothing wrong with splitting your time between the SH and FR games. If the swings at the SH games bother you at all, no matter how small it bothers you, it's probably a good idea to "diversify your risk" by splitting time between the two.

Personally, I like the 1,000 BB roll idea for SH games.

cc said...

I don't believe in all that 1000 BBs deal. I don't think you need more than 20--unless you start losing!

It does seem a bit mind boggling to consider to me--that must mean that 99.9% of players play above their bankroll? Most folks: 100-200x. Most knowledgeable players: 250-500x. For your heavy players, what do you think? Is 500 more the norm? Unclear

Never-Limp said...

I'd actually like to see some of those bad beats and maybe a hand or two that you might have misplayed. You could use the excellent Pokerhand converter and write your analysis underneath the link. I recently did this on my blog and you can hide your identity if you want to.