Mansion is running a pretty incredible promotion to kick off the NFL season that you degenerates might want to jump on. Wager at least $1,100 (to win $1,000) on a point spread bet on the Steelers for their game on September 7, 2006 versus Miami, and if the Steelers cover the spread, you win a cool $1,000. If the Steelers don't cover, Mansion will refund your $1,100 wager within three days.
Yep, you read that right. It's a risk-free chance to win $1,000, with the only downside being that you might tie up $1,100 for a week or two, placing the wager and possibly waiting for a refund. And Mansion is completely reputable and not some fly by night book that might rip anyone off or not honor the promotion.
You can also simply hedge the bet and lock in a guaranteed profit of $450-$500 or so, by taking the risk-free bet at Mansion and then betting the other side of it at a book like Pinnacle. That way you're guaranteed to lock in a nce profit, albeit less than half of what you'd win if you just took the free bet on the Steelers and they won.
Exhaustive discussion of the bonus and hedging strategies can be found at this thread at 2+2.
Here are the terms and conditions from the site, as far as the promotion itself. One thing to note is to be sure to place the bet at the Sportsbook, not the Sports Exchange (which are two different beasts):
This offer applies to bets placed on MANSION Sportsbook only and is limited to the team and selection specified. Bets placed on MANSION Sports Exchange will not qualify.
To qualify, Players must place a single Points Spread (Handicap) bet of USD 1,100 on Pittsburgh Steelers for their game on 7 Sep 2006
This offer is only available on the first bet placed for this event
To qualify for this promotion you must be 18 years of age or over and have agreed to the MANSION terms & conditions.
The promotion is valid from 25 Aug 2006.
All refunds will be placed into Member accounts within 3 working days of the result.
All personal information provided to MANSION must be complete and accurate in all respects and we reserve the right to request additional information in order to satisfy our validation of this information.
Only one refund is allowed for each MANSION Member, residential address, email address, telephone number, debit/credit card or NETeller account number and shared computer. The refund applies exclusively to the first account opened in the event multiple accounts are opened.
MANSION may at our sole discretion limit the eligibility of customers to participate in any promotion or bonus offer.
MANSION reserves the right to withdraw or amend this offer at any time without prior notice.
All decisions made by MANSION regarding this promotion shall be deemed final.
The withdrawal of any promotion funds will be subject to MANSION withdrawal policy.
Offer is valid for limited time period only.
Players that bet both sides of the event with MANSION will not be eligible for a loss refund.
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8 comments:
Just be sure that if you win you only get $1000 and you lose $100 from your $1100 bet. LOL. Something just doesn't feel right about that offer. They get to hold your grand for two weeks and I'll bet you don't get your money back that quickly. Seems as though when someone offers you a chance at easy money but you have to put up a lot of money - I'd be a bit skeptical. Good luck on that. Hope you see your $1100 back.
Chipper, the Steelers are at -110 when you bet this. So, that is why you get a $1K return when betting $1.1K. That is totally standard sportsbook stuff, and nothing to be skeptical about.
Also, they ran this sort of promotion during the World Cup. The bet lost, and all money was returned to the bettors. To turn this offer down is very dumb IMO.
Chipper,
Mansion is about as reputable as they come in the sportsbook world, so for this to somehow turn out to be a shady promotion would be like Stars or Full Tilt running a bogus promotion with hidden pitfalls.
They're also splashing around tons of cash lately in promotions (the whole Poker Dome thing for their poker brand as well as other similar promotions on the sportsbook side), so they've definitely proven to be willing to spend advertising bucks. If you look at the free sportsbet in that light, it's not an insane amount for them to spend to acquire new customers (and ones willing to plunk down +$1,000), especially given the viral nature of a promotion like this when forums and blogs pick it up and disseminate the news. And they only incur that cost if the Steelers cover and they actually have to pay out the bets.
On top of all that, some people have hypothesized that Mansion themselves may be hedging the other side of the bet, so that their overall risk is reduced. They're guaranteed to incur a loss that way, if they're hedging, but they can basically set the cost they're willing to pay for the promotion by hedging it and adjusting as more money comes in, etc.
You're definitely right, as far as your money being tied up for awhile, but that's a pretty small price to pay for the potential return, especially if you hedge it and lock in $450-$500 in profits.
Bet $1100 on Pitt -4.5 on Mansion. (Pitt must win by 5 or more.)
Next go to Pinnacle. See what the odds are on Miami +4.5. It will show a decimal like 1.86
Take $1000/1.86 = $537.63 Bet $537.63 on Miami +4.5
Presto, a perfect hedge!
Puckle,
Betting the spread is pretty simple. Using the Steelers bet at Mansion as an example, that line is currently set as follows:
Steelers -4.5 -110
What that means is that the Steelers are favored by 4.5 points, and that for every $110 you wager, you would win $100 if your bet wins. (If that last number were -140, then you'd win $100 for every $140 you wagered, and so on.)
The "spread" part of the bet is the -4.5 part. You're not betting straight up, that the Steelers will win. You're betting the point spread, which says that the Steelers will not only win, but they will win by at least 4.5 points. (If the Steelers were +4.5 instead, that would mean they were underdogs, and that you could win by betting on them even if they lost, as long as they lost by 4.5 points or less. You'd also obviously win your bet if the underdog on the spread wins the game outright.)
So if the Steelers win by 3 points and you bet on them at -4.5, you lose your bet, even though they win the game. If they win by 5 or more, you're golden and win your bet. If they win by exactly 4.5 points, then it'd be a push and your initial wager would be returned.
That's why you commonly see the point spreads set at 0.5 intervals, to avoid the possibility of a push, since pushes are boring. 'Tis impossible to score 0.5 points in the NFL so that looks at at first, but the reason that half points are used in spreads is simply to avoid pushes or ties and having no result for a bet.
Wikipedia has some decent info on spread betting here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_spread
So what's important here to hedge it is to find another sportsbook that offers the Dolphins at the same point spread, but on the opposite side. In this case, you're looking for the Dolphins +4.5, so that it offsets your Steelers bet at Mansion. If you can't find that line out there naturally, you may have to buy a half point to move the line from Dolphins +4 to Dolphines +4.5.
You can also hedge the bet and not have it offset exactly, but you usually incur some risk there and the calculations can get complicated so it's easiest to just offset the lines exactly.
For what it's worth, I'm not going to hedge this one, as I think the Steelers are going to cover, so I just plunked down the $1,100 on the Steelers and am crossing my fingers.
I'm a wimp so I hedged at +4 Dolphins -110.
Steelers cover = + $500
Dolphins cover = + $453
Push at 4 = $0
Unfortunately the sportsbook I use didn't allow to move the line so I'm rooting for anything besides the 'Phins not winning by 4.
Lordy I'm on too.
Never bet $1100 on a sporting event before.
As a Brit, I am praying I put it on the correct bet!
Scurvy, maybe a screenshot(s) of what the proper bet should look like.
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