Thursday, August 31, 2006

Once More into the Mansion Free Bet Breech

In an attempt to answer assorted queries and emails about the Mansion free bet promotion all in one place, here goes:

1) For people who aren't used to American style odds and/or point spread bets, it's really pretty easy. Go to Mansion and find the NFL games (I believe they're under "American football" in the links on the top left in the sportsbook. The NFL games for the first week will be listed, with the Pittsburgh/Miami game at the very top.

You will see exactly one possible bet for the Pittsburgh/Miami game, which (as of last night, I'm at work now and can't check it) was the following point spread line:

Pittsburgh -4.5 -110
Miami +4.5 -110

To bet on Pittsburgh to cover the point spread and win the bet, you would check the check box by Pittsburgh, wager $1,100 when asked what to wager, and submit the bet. That's it. The point spread bet is the only bet option available, so there's really no way to screw it up. You don't have to wade through moneyline bets, over/under bets, etc. The bet you see is the one should make, taking Pittsburgh.

2) The first part of the point spread bet (-4.5) determines how many points your team must win by in order for you to win the wager. In this case, Pittsburgh must win by > 4.5 points for you to win. If they lose or win by < 4.5 points, you do not win the wager. If they win by exactly 4.5 points (impossible, in this case), it would be a push and your wager would be returned.

The second part of the point spread bet (-110) determines what you will get paid if you win. For every $110 you wager, you get back $100 if you win. In this example, you wager $1,100 to win $1,000. If you win, your account balance will be $2,100. If you lose, Mansion refunds the $1,100 wager to you within three days, and your account balance will be $1,100.

One thing to note is that while many point spread bets use the -110 number, not all of them do. If you're looking to hedge your bet at Mansion at another book, keep this in mind. Remember, to hedge it perfectly you're looking for another book that's offering Miami +4.5. Let's say you find two books that offer that, with the following lines:

Book A: Miami +4.5 -110
Book B: Miami +4.5 -107

You'd want to go with Book B, as that line is slightly better. Instead of getting $100 back for every $110 you wager, you'd get $100 back for every $107 you wager. So the same $500 wager on Miami made at both books would pay you back slightly more at Book B, since you're getting a better price on each dollar you wager.

When making point spread bets don't just focus on the first number, but also the second, as both are important and determine your ultimate payout. Most point spread bets are set at -110 as a default, but not always.

3) Many reports on 2+2 and elsewhere of people talking with support and confirming that there is no hidden WR with this promotion, whether you win or lose.

They do ask for a copy of ID for anyone who is requesting a cashout, so be aware of that. That's pretty standard for many online casinos and sportsbooks, and you can scan and email it to them, blacking out your actual driver's license #. They're confirming that your official ID lists the same physical address you registered with them, so don't give them bogus info when signing up, or an address that doesn't match what's on your driver's license, passport, etc.

4) Didn't think this needed stating, but if you hedge this bet, don't bet the other side at Mansion, too. You have to hedge bets at different sportsbooks, as many don't like for you to bet both sides of the same game, especially if you received a bonus or are participating in a promotion such as this.

5 comments:

Drizztdj said...

Ugh. I wish I'd read about blacking out my ID #.

Never thought about that.

cbe2869 said...

The bet on Pittburgh is simple enough but not being a sportsbettor I think it's alot more likely to screw up the hedge. If my mind is thinking right here are two possible scenarios. The opening line at Mansion was (-5) for Pittsburgh and now it has moved down to (-4.5) If someone bet the line when it was (-5) then they would need to hedge their bet on Miami at(+5) but if they were willing to pay the extra juice they could go with Miami at (+5.5) to ensure a win on one bet or the other if Pittsburgh were to win by exactly 5. The extra cost to buy the line to (+5.5) doesn't seem worth it though since most of the books have Miami at (+4) and it seems that the likelyhood of Pittsburgh winning by exactly 5 is pretty small. So for a (-5) bet on Pittsburgh it seems to me the best bet would be to hedge Miaimi at (+5).

On the other hand for those who placed their bet on Pittburgh at (-4.5) they could hedge their bet on Miami at (+4.5) which would guarantee that one side or the other wins as there can't be a push with a -/+4.5 line. The lines at most of the books seem to have Miami at (+4) though. If someone wanted to hedge the bet by taking Miami at (+4) though they could as the only worry there would be if if Pittburgh won by exactly 4 then the bet on Pittsburgh would lose and be refunded by Mansion while the bet on Miami would push so no profit from either bet. It seems that a game ending with a difference of 4 points is more likely than it ending with a difference of 5 points so taking Miami at (+4.5) would probably be best. This seem right?

ScurvyDog said...

cbe2869,

I stayed away from discussing hedging too much as people seem to be stuggling a good bit with just the basic point spread bet, and I was trying to keep things simple. There's a good argument that your EV is higher if you simply take the Steelers for the promo bet and don't hedge it at all. But there's an equally good argument for hedging it and locking in a guaranteed profit.

As far as hedging, you pretty much nailed it. Either you hedge it at a book that will let you buy points to match the Mansion line (in this case you'd buy half a point on Miami's side to get to +4.5 to offset the Steelers -4.5 line at Mansion) or you take the Dolphins +4 and cross your fingers.

If you take the Dolphins +4 line without buying points (to hedge your Steelers -4.5 wager at Mansion), at absolute worst you'll break even. That happens if the Steelers win by exactly 4 points, as you lose the Mansion free bet (which costs you $0, as your wager is refunded), and the Dolphins bet is a push, which also costs you $0.

Any other outcome than the Steelers winning by exactly 4 point guarantees that you make money.

I forget the exact figure, but something like 7% of games over the last decade have been decided by 7, 4, and 6 points. (The most common point differential is the obvious one, 3 points, which happens something like 15% of the time). So you're looking at probably a 3-5% chance or so likelihood of the Steelers winning by exactly 4 points. Which isn't too bad, so you're probably pretty safe by taking the Dolphins +4 to hedge the Steelers -4.5 wager.

But yeah, if you want to be absolutely sure of locking in some profit, you should spend the extra bucks to buy the points necessary so that the bets offset exactly, buying the points necessary to get Dolphins +4.5 (or +5, if that's when you locked in the Steelers bet at Mansion).

slb159 said...

Run, Ricky, run! Oh, he smokes too much whacky weed...that's right. Ooops.

cbe2869 said...

People have just about argued the +EV of not hedging versus hedging into the ground. If this oppourtunity were offered 20K times of course I would be against hedging. If the amount to win if hedged was enough to change my life like a million plus dollars then I would say hedge all day. As things stand though and with this being a rather infrequent offer hedging for those who $450+ would mean something is not a bad idea in my opinion. Sure most people who jump up from level to level in poker take chances and risk their bankroll but for each one who suceeds many fail.