Monday, September 13, 2004

Like, Dude, Online Poker is Rigged

Heh. I knew I was cursing myself when I thought yesterday, "You know, I haven't had any really horrible beats at NL ring games for awhile."

And it was true. I nearly posted about how amazing NL ring game play is to me sometimes, and how people will literally hand you money if you have the patience to only play strong hands. People who will raise A7o and shove their whole stack in when an A hits the board. People who will re-raise all-in pre-flop with JJ, even when two (or more) others have already shown strength. Literally just handing you money, over and over and over.

I had about $50 left in my Paradise account after shifting almost everything over to Neteller. I'll sometimes keep a few bones in an account just to challenge myself to build it up to a decent bankroll (which is usually followed by busting out within a few hours.) I'd left $20 in the Paradise account originally, played it up to $150, then lost my ass at PL Omaha. So I sat down with my $50 at a $200 NL game just to see what I could do with it.

Many folds later I'm in the BB and look down to see AA. The table was pretty loose but everyone had pretty small stacks, with most people in the $20-$60 range. UTG raises to $2, tight player in MP raises it to $5 and it comes around to me. I've got about $45 or so. I didn't want to pop it too hard, as I was afraid I'd lose UTG. I raise to $10, UTG calls, MP raises it to $15. I honestly almost pushed here, but I'd already committed to slow-playing, so I just called, and UTG called.

Flop is A 7 3, rainbow. I underbet, tossing in $20, still trying to string UTG along. UTG folds, MP raises it to $40. At this point I'm giggling with glee as I push all-in and he calls. I'm thinking I couldn't have scripted a better scenario for AA, especially when he turns over 93o.

Turn comes 3. I did that stupid thing where at first it scared me, just seeing the third 3 for him, before I realized it gave me the boat. My victory jig increases in momentum. (Well, okay, it wasn't a full blown jig, as I had my laptop in my lap. It was more of an arm-flailing, head-bobbing sort of sedentary jig.)

Except the river is a 3. And I just sat there, staring at it. Huh. Runner-runner for quad 3s. And I get that fun little pop-up that tells me I'm sitting out, since I have no chips. And all he types in the chat window is "lol". Three little wee, uncapitalized letters, "lol". After raking in a +$100 pot with 93o.

Now, I'll be the first to say that if you're going to get hit with a bad beat like that, losing 50 bones isn't the worst thing that can happen. I mean, if you described that scenario and allowed me to wager whatever I wanted after the flop, knowing what we both held, I'd have put up my truck keys and the deed to my house. So in that respect, I got off cheap.

But really, let's break this down. Let's ignore UTG, as he quickly became a non-factor. We have me, our shining hero, holding AA, versus Mr. RaiseyMcGee holding 93o. Odds are 87%-13% in my favor. Despite that, Mr. RaiseyMcGee raises not once pre-flop, but twice, into obvious signs of strength.

After the flop I've improved to 3 aces. Mr. RaiseyMcGee has a pair of 3s (bottom pair), with 9 kicker. No straight or flush potential. Odds are 99.9%-0.01% in my favor at this point. What does Mr. RaiseyMcGee do with his 93o and an A on the board? He raises and then calls an all-in push.

Turn is a 3. Odds now are 97.7%-2.3% in my favor.

River is a 3. Fat lady sings. Cue lamentation and woe.


(But yeah, like I said, if anything I got off relatively lucky, as far as sitting down with a short stack to begin with. Poker is a crazy game and everyone who sits down at the table knows that. People hit one outers every single day. Luck flails around impartially, striking us down and lifting us up, with absolutely no regard to how well or poorly we play a particular hand. Them's the breaks. Deal with it and drive on.)

1 comment:

Heafy said...

Hey, I don't know if I have heard of a worse 1 outer, besides the amount lost of course. Sure, 1 outers happen every day, but you still gotta tell the world about it via a poker blog I say!