Monday, September 04, 2006

The Wacky World of Sportsbetting

If you were waiting to make your decision on hedging the Mansion free bet on the Steelers (like I was), ha. Now we're rooting mightily for Charlie Batch (or Jeff George some other schlub off the street to power the Steelers to at least a 5 point victory. Or for Willie Parker to get 73 carries and rush for 340 yards and 6 TDs.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had an emergency appendectomy Sunday, and their backup QB Charlie Batch isn't exactly awe-inspiring, as evidenced by the line moving like crazy. The Mansion line is now at pick 'em (or pk, or pick), which means that there's no point spread built into the line now, and you're simply picking the Steelers to win, if you still haven't locked in the free bet on the Mansion side. (It's technically still a point spread bet, it's just one in which the point spread is set to 0, which is displayed as "pk", etc.)

Pinnacle has it at +1 Dolphins, but the most you could move the line is to +2.5, nowhere near what you need to hedge the Mansion free bet if you locked it in earlier at -5 or -4.5 Steelers. When books start to post their lines for the game, it'll likely be in the pick/+1 territory, so hedging is pretty much no longer an option if you've already locked in the bet.

If you haven't locked it in yet on the Mansion side, congrats, as they just put the promo back on the site, and you can take it at Steelers pk and hedge to your heart's content, when other books start posting their lines for the game.

Can't say I'm really happy at all with letting the bet ride with the Steelers -4.5 at this point, as their QB situation is pretty damn dreadful, but it is a free bet, and they play the games for a reason.

Dude, Steve Irwin got killed by a stingray?


WillWonka said...

As we Cowboys... it will be hard to root for the hated Steelers, but yep... go Steelers.. ouch.. that hurt.

Sean said...
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Sean said...

Well Scurvy, I finally got in on the action at the pk line. I'm planning to hedge, but I wanted some advice...

Is a Dolphins +1 -104 (Pinnacle's current line) a good deal? By my calculations that means I'll have a good hedge if I bet $520 (Dolphins win or tie, I get $500, Steelers win by 2 or more, I get $480, Steelers win by 1 and I collect $1000). Obviously the $520 is a touch high for a true hedge, but you get the idea.

Is it worth pushing the line to get a bigger middle in NFL games? I'm thinking no, but I figured I'd ask. I'm not going to place the bet for a day or two (money still needs to be moved).

Anyway, thanks for the info -- I did attempt to give you credit for the referral and used your link.

Sean said...

Hey, Scurvy, do you know any good sportsbooks to put the hedge down in where I could get a decent bonus at the same time (i.e. kickbacks from an affiliate or something?)

Feel free to contact me via e-mail, should still have it from B2B stuff.

ScurvyDog said...


Yep, you nailed it, as far as hedging it at Pinnacle.

And you raise a good point about buying points for a better shot at a middle. I'm not the best person to be opining on the subject as I haven't dabbled in middling, but there is something to be said for pushing the line to Dolphins +1.5, as then you make serious bank if the Steelers win by exactly 1 point. But it's pretty rare for NFL games to be decided by 1 point, so it's likely not worth the extra money you'll pay to push the line to +1.5. Like I said, though, I ain't too savvy about the middling, so don't take my word on it.

Unknown said...

I hedged the bet the same night, thus locking in the +4 line on the Dolphins.